Polymarket accounts earned $1.2 million by accurately predicting U.S. military strikes on Iran, highlighting insider trading concerns in prediction markets
Prediction Market Insights: Polymarket's $1.2 Million Windfall
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has reported a series of trades by six Polymarket accounts that collectively earned approximately $1.2 million after accurately predicting U.S. military strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. The findings highlight the complex landscape of prediction markets and insider trading concerns.
Timing and Strategy
Most of these wallets were funded within a day before the predicted strike date, with the majority purchasing "Yes" shares in the market "U.S. Strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?" shortly before reports of explosions emerged in Tehran and other cities. Remarkably, all six accounts showed no further activity after their predictions.
Financial Impact
One Polymarket account stands out for its large bet: it purchased over 560,000 "Yes" shares at around 10.8 cents each, earning nearly $560,000 when the market resolved positively. Another account bought close to 150,000 shares at a higher price of 20 cents and also made a substantial profit.
Market Volume and Analysis
According to Polymarket data, all six profiles were created in February, coinciding with the timeframe of the predicted event. The Feb. 28 contract saw significant trading volume, reaching nearly $90 million, part of over $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December.
Regulatory Concerns
As U.S. regulators grapple with how to regulate insider activity on prediction markets, these incidents add urgency to the debate. This month, rival platform Kalshi announced it had suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor from MrBeast’s "Beast Games" who allegedly traded based on show outcomes.
Polymarket's Own Challenges
Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a designated contract market, has investigated over 200 cases and currently has more than a dozen active probes. The CFTC recently issued an advisory warning that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law.
Axiom's Unveiling
Insider trading issues also emerged in the Polymarket community when blockchain sleuth ZachXBT began investigating alleged misconduct involving a crypto platform, leading to speculation and pre-investigation betting. This scenario illustrates the potential for insider information to spread through prediction markets even before its official disclosure.
These incidents underscore the need for robust regulatory frameworks and heightened vigilance in the rapidly evolving world of prediction markets and decentralized finance (DeFi).
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