Bitcoin may reach its market bottom by February 2026, according to Rony Szuster, based on historical trends compared with gold performance.
Market Analysis and Predictions
Bitcoin’s path to a market bottom could come as early as February 2026 if historical patterns hold true, according to Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin. This prediction is based on an analysis comparing the crypto asset's performance against gold.
Historical Trends and Current Market Conditions
Szuster notes that the most recent peak for bitcoin in dollar terms occurred in October 2025 at approximately $126,000. However, if the current cycle follows past patterns, the downturn could extend into late 2026. When analyzed through a gold-denominated lens, the timeline shifts. Bitcoin reached its high against gold in January 2025, and applying similar cycles would indicate a potential bottom around February 2026 with recovery possibly beginning in March.
Macro Economic Factors Influencing Trends
This divergence in timing reflects broader macroeconomic forces since Donald Trump's second term began. These include aggressive trade tariffs, domestic institutional disputes within the U.S., rising tensions with China and Iran, and an ongoing military conflict involving Iran. The World Uncertainty Index has increased significantly, contributing to a rise in gold prices by over 80% in the past year to $5,280.
Capital Flow and Investor Behavior
Capital rotation from bitcoin to bullion further illustrates investor behavior. Between November and February, about $7.8 billion was withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs, representing roughly 12% of the total $61.6 billion in these funds. However, large-scale investors or "whales" are accumulating rather than selling during this downturn.
Investment Strategies
Szuster advises investors to adopt an intelligent approach and leverage a dollar-cost averaging strategy to take advantage of current market fear. He emphasizes that historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than during euphoria. While the market may not have reached its bottom yet, statistically speaking, this is likely the optimal time for building positions.
Conclusion
Despite potential uncertainties, Szuster believes that investors can strategically position themselves to benefit from current market conditions by understanding historical cycles and macroeconomic factors influencing both bitcoin and gold markets.
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