USDC surpasses USDT in transaction volume for the first time since 2019, marking a 64% market share shift. Mizuho raises Circle's stock price target to $12
Market Share Shift: USDC Surpasses USDT
Japanese investment bank Mizuho has reported that Circle’s USDC has surpassed Tether’s USDT in transaction volume for the first time since 2019. In a research note released on Friday, Mizuho adjusted its price target for Circle’s stock from $100 to $120. According to Mizuho, USDC recorded approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume compared to USDT's $1.3 trillion for the year to date.
Transaction Volume Dynamics: A Long-Term Trend Reversal
Mizuho's analysis indicates a significant shift in market dynamics, reversing the previous trend where USDT's transaction volume consistently outperformed USDC from 2019 to 2025. The bank stated that USDC now holds about 64% of the market share, marking a notable change in the stablecoin landscape.
Market Capitalization: USDT Remains the Largest
Despite USDC's increased transaction volume, Tether’s USDT still holds a larger market capitalization, with an estimated value of around $184 billion compared to USDC's $79 billion. This suggests that while USDC is gaining traction in daily transactions, USDT continues to be the dominant stablecoin by value.
Significance of Transaction Volume Data
Mizuho analysts emphasize that the transaction volume data is crucial for determining the "winner" of the stablecoin race, not just market capitalization. This metric indicates which stablecoin is more widely used for everyday transactions, making it a key indicator of market adoption and acceptance.
Regulatory Uncertainty: Digital Asset Market Structure Bill Stalled
In Washington, DC, the future of digital asset regulations remains uncertain. The CLARITY Act, which passed the House of Representatives, is currently stalled in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated a preference for voting requirements legislation, postponing the market structure bill until at least April. This ongoing debate over stablecoin yield, ethics, and tokenized equities underscores the complex regulatory environment surrounding stablecoins and digital assets.
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